There has been statements made to the effect that was that “some” on-line poker sites use BOTS. And there have been stories, as well, of blatant cheating (the Unibet and Absolute poker story is the most famous).
I play a bit of online poker, so therefore I am interested in this issue. I play online poker mostly because it is convenient. I even win a little. However, I cannot vouch for the online sites’ legitimacy. Rather, I actually happen to think they are rigged – at least the ones I know.
One could argue that since they do make so much money they wouldn’t want to risk cheating. On the other hand, the incentives for cheating are enormous. And even though they are audited, we all know from the Enron case and other business cases how much that means. From an economics perspective huge incentives are likely to lead to a too great a temptation for some.
So, yeah, there definitely could be some funny business going on. See for instance this post about PokerStars. I myself play on PokerStars. I am 80% certain they are cheating. I believe the game is set up so that “poker idiots” win more than they should, so as to encourage them to play more. It seems to me that stupid bidders win much, much more than the mathematics of poker would imply. Among player, JokerStars rivers are pretty famous and often referred to with a LOL.
For instance, with 4,5,8 on the table in Texas Hold’em, I went all in. An opponent called me. It turned out his cards were J,Q. Turn and river came 9 and 10. He won with a straight. His chance of winning was 1,62%. It could of course happen, and indeed will about 16 out of every 1000 times.
Two hands later another player went all in and was called. One had AA, the other Q4 suited. The Q4 won. The chances were 12%. Again, about hands later – all in KK versus 66. 66 wins, and the chances are about 20%.
So each of these events could happen. But the joint likelihood is so small that it is hardly worth considering. And observing closely on the sites where I play, I see a lot of things that viewed from a joint likelihood point of view more or less are impossible. The patters are, to me, extremely revealing.
So I do not really think the odds of poker apply to online sites. Philosophically, the question is then whether online poker is poker, as they have programmed modifications in the odds. I often sit and watch the site painstakingly construct a straight around a smaller pocket pair so that it beats AA or KK from a pre-flop all-in. It is a bit sickening to watch, but it happens frequently. The odds of it happening in real poker are almost zilch, of course.
To me is isn’t poker. You can’t program changes of the odds and still call it poker. Poker is a game of skill that requires good players to know the odds. So to me, “online poker” is just an online game, to be played for entertainment and with extreme caution. To me, this is a way of treating customers that is very short term and will not strengten relationships to good customers. It is very lacking in respect. To get real online poker, I think we need online poker sites owned and controlled by goverments, such as the Swedes have. Until then, I don’t think they should be trusted, and people should play there only with extreme caution.
It seems to me that Dream Poker is the most suspecius site, closely followed by PokerStars. I think it is likely that these are “action rigged”. Lately even Fullt Tilt have strarted to look strange, although not as bad as the other ones. However, it seems the Dream Poker sites, with Purple Lounge, 32Red and other affiliates have been loosing most of thir customers, so perhaps people are starting to see the strange stuff going on and shy away from the worst places. In the absense of any meaningful kind of regulation or investigation by Interpol or the FBI, one has to hope that customers will not forever be fooled and will move elsewhere.
{ 1 comment… read it below or add one }
well.. it’s like I thought!
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